Evaluating Agricultural Catastrophe Risk in Guangdong Province

This paper evaluates agricultural catastrophe risk in Guangdong province based on the approach of agricultural catastrophe risk assessment, which can be shown as the process of crop loss collection, Monte Carlo simulation, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) fitting, and risk calculation. The Type III Extreme distribution (Weibull) has a weighted advantage of modeling agricultural catastrophe risk for crop production. The impact of typhoon catastrophe to crop production in Guangdong province was serious. Given the scenario of suffering once-in-a-century typhoon disaster in Guangdong province, the probability of 10 % reduction in crop production reached more than 14.168 %. In addition, the risk of drought and flood catastrophe in Guangdong province was not very serious.