Short-term effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease among children in Shenzhen, China: Non-linearity, threshold and interaction

相对湿度 风速 混淆 泊松回归 表观温度 相互作用 分布滞后 广义加性模型 相对风险 环境科学 滞后 医学 大气科学 人口学 统计 置信区间 气象学 数学 地理 环境卫生 人口 社会学 地质学 计算机科学 计算机网络
作者
Zhen Zhang,Xu Xie,Xiliang Chen,Yuan Li,Yan Lu,Shujiang Mei,Yuxue Liao,Hualiang Lin
出处
期刊:Science of The Total Environment [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:539: 576-582 被引量:66
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.09.027
摘要

Various meteorological factors have been associated with hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children; however, fewer studies have examined the non-linearity and interaction among the meteorological factors.A generalized additive model with a log link allowing Poisson auto-regression and over-dispersion was applied to investigate the short-term effects daily meteorological factors on children HFMD with adjustment of potential confounding factors.We found positive effects of mean temperature and wind speed, the excess relative risk (ERR) was 2.75% (95% CI: 1.98%, 3.53%) for one degree increase in daily mean temperature on lag day 6, and 3.93% (95% CI: 2.16% to 5.73%) for 1m/s increase in wind speed on lag day 3. We found a non-linear effect of relative humidity with thresholds with the low threshold at 45% and high threshold at 85%, within which there was positive effect, the ERR was 1.06% (95% CI: 0.85% to 1.27%) for 1 percent increase in relative humidity on lag day 5. No significant effect was observed for rainfall and sunshine duration. For the interactive effects, we found a weak additive interaction between mean temperature and relative humidity, and slightly antagonistic interaction between mean temperature and wind speed, and between relative humidity and wind speed in the additive models, but the interactions were not statistically significant.This study suggests that mean temperature, relative humidity and wind speed might be risk factors of children HFMD in Shenzhen, and the interaction analysis indicates that these meteorological factors might have played their roles individually.
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