A Scenario-Based Approach for Operating Theater Scheduling Under Uncertainty

Elective operation scheduling significantly affects the financial health of a hospital and additional metrics important to stakeholders in an operating theater (OT) environment. In this research, we develop a novel scheduling formulation that explicitly considers the uncertainty in elective operation durations and also plans for potential randomly arriving urgent demands. Using a scenario-based modeling approach, the objective of this formulation is to maximize the expected profit associated with the OT schedule. Since the complexity of the problem is NP-hard, we develop a two-step, heuristic solution approach that allows us to solve practical-sized instances in reasonable time. Experimentation shows that incorporating uncertainty via scenarios increases profit and OT utilization when compared to deterministic scheduling methods. Moreover, explicitly considering urgent arrivals results in a significant reduction in the time that patients of this type wait to receive service, with little impact on other key metrics.