Modeling Indirect Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sources from Urban Wastewater Treatment Plants: Integrating Machine Learning Models to Compensate for Sparse Parameters with Abundant Observations

Electricity consumption and sludge yield (SY) are important indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emission sources in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Predicting these byproducts is crucial for tailoring technology-related policy decisions. However, it challenges balancing mass balance models and mechanistic models that respectively have limited intervariable nexus representation and excessive requirements on operational parameters. Herein, we propose integrating two machine learning models, namely, gradient boosting tree (GBT) and deep learning (DL), to precisely pointwise model electricity consumption intensity (ECI) and SY for WWTPs in China. Results indicate that GBT and DL are capable of mining massive data to compensate for the lack of available parameters, providing a comprehensive modeling focusing on operation conditions and designed parameters, respectively. The proposed model reveals that lower ECI and SY were associated with higher treated wastewater volumes, more lenient effluent standards, and newer equipment. Moreover, ECI and SY showed different patterns when influent biochemical oxygen demand is above or below 100 mg/L in the anaerobic-anoxic-oxic process. Therefore, managing ECI and SY requires quantifying the coupling relationships between biochemical reactions instead of isolating each variable. Furthermore, the proposed models demonstrate potential economic-related inequalities resulting from synergizing water pollution and GHG emissions management.