Association between blood glucose level trajectories and 30-day mortality risk in patients with acute ischemic stroke: analysis of the MIMIC database 2001–2019

Hyperglycemia is one of the most common comorbidities in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). This study aimed to assess the impact of short-term longitudinal blood glucose level change trajectories on the 30-day mortality risk in patients with AIS. Data for AIS patients were obtained from the 2001–2019 Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database. The latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM) was utilized to classify a patient's blood glucose level trajectory within 24 h of admission. Cox regression analyses were applied to examine the relationship between blood glucose levels at admission and blood glucose level trajectories and the risk of 30-day mortality in patients with AIS. A total of 2,432 patients with AIS were included in this retrospective cohort study, with 30-day mortality occurring in 574 (23.60%) patients. The median glucose levels of all patients were 136.00 (110.00, 178.00) mg/dL. Four blood glucose level trajectories were identified: low level-stable trend (type 1), moderate level-stable trend (type 2), high level-decreasing-increasing trend (type 3), and moderate level-increasing-decreasing trend (type 4). Type 2 blood glucose level trajectory was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality compared with type 1 blood glucose level trajectory [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.59), but there were no significant associations between type 3 (HR = 1.16, 95%CI: 0.77–1.74) and type 4 (HR = 1.44, 95%CI: 0.84–2.45) trajectories and 30-day mortality risk. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the association between type 2 trajectory and 30-day mortality risk was observed in patients aged ≥ 65 years (HR = 1.37, 95%CI: 1.05–1.79), female (HR = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.05–1.94), with (HR = 1.44, 95%CI: 1.02–2.02) or without (HR = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.01–1.99) diabetes, and not using insulin (HR = 2.80, 95%CI: 1.43–5.49). AIS patients with consistently high blood glucose levels within 24 h of admission increased the risk of 30-day mortality.