Identification of immune microenvironment subtypes and signature genes for Alzheimer’s disease diagnosis and risk prediction based on explainable machine learning

Background Using interpretable machine learning, we sought to define the immune microenvironment subtypes and distinctive genes in AD. Methods ssGSEA, LASSO regression, and WGCNA algorithms were used to evaluate immune state in AD patients. To predict the fate of AD and identify distinctive genes, six machine learning algorithms were developed. The output of machine learning models was interpreted using the SHAP and LIME algorithms. For external validation, four separate GEO databases were used. We estimated the subgroups of the immunological microenvironment using unsupervised clustering. Further research was done on the variations in immunological microenvironment, enhanced functions and pathways, and therapeutic medicines between these subtypes. Finally, the expression of characteristic genes was verified using the AlzData and pan-cancer databases and RT-PCR analysis. Results It was determined that AD is connected to changes in the immunological microenvironment. WGCNA revealed 31 potential immune genes, of which the greenyellow and blue modules were shown to be most associated with infiltrated immune cells. In the testing set, the XGBoost algorithm had the best performance with an AUC of 0.86 and a P-R value of 0.83. Following the screening of the testing set by machine learning algorithms and the verification of independent datasets, five genes (CXCR4, PPP3R1, HSP90AB1, CXCL10, and S100A12) that were closely associated with AD pathological biomarkers and allowed for the accurate prediction of AD progression were found to be immune microenvironment-related genes. The feature gene-based nomogram may provide clinical advantages to patients. Two immune microenvironment subgroups for AD patients were identified, subtype2 was linked to a metabolic phenotype, subtype1 belonged to the immune-active kind. MK-866 and arachidonyltrifluoromethane were identified as the top treatment agents for subtypes 1 and 2, respectively. These five distinguishing genes were found to be intimately linked to the development of the disease, according to the Alzdata database, pan-cancer research, and RT-PCR analysis. Conclusion The hub genes associated with the immune microenvironment that are most strongly associated with the progression of pathology in AD are CXCR4, PPP3R1, HSP90AB1, CXCL10, and S100A12. The hypothesized molecular subgroups might offer novel perceptions for individualized AD treatment.