Development and Validation of an Ultrasound-Based Radiomics Nomogram for Identifying HER2 Status in Patients with Breast Carcinoma

(1) Objective: To evaluate the performance of ultrasound-based radiomics in the preoperative prediction of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) and HER2- breast carcinoma. (2) Methods: Ultrasound images from 309 patients (86 HER2+ cases and 223 HER2- cases) were retrospectively analyzed, of which 216 patients belonged to the training set and 93 patients assigned to the time-independent validation set. The region of interest of the tumors was delineated, and the radiomics features were extracted. Radiomics features underwent dimensionality reduction analyses using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), Mann-Whitney U test, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm. The radiomics score (Rad-score) for each patient was calculated through a linear combination of the nonzero coefficient features. The support vector machine (SVM), K nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), naive Bayes (NB) and XGBoost (XGB) machine learning classifiers were trained to establish prediction models based on the Rad-score. A clinical model based on significant clinical features was also established. In addition, the logistic regression method was used to integrate Rad-score and clinical features to generate the nomogram model. The leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) method was used to validate the reliability and stability of the model. (3) Results: Among the seven classifier models, the LR achieved the best performance in the validation set, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.786, and was obtained as the Rad-score model, while the RF performed the worst. Tumor size showed a statistical difference between the HER2+ and HER2- groups (p = 0.028). The nomogram model had a slightly higher AUC than the Rad-score model (AUC, 0.788 vs. 0.786), but no statistical difference (Delong test, p = 0.919). The LOOCV method yielded a high median AUC of 0.790 in the validation set. (4) Conclusion: The Rad-score model performs best among the seven classifiers. The nomogram model based on Rad-score and tumor size has slightly better predictive performance than the Rad-score model, and it has the potential to be utilized as a routine modality for preoperatively determining HER2 status in BC patients non-invasively.