Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia (WACE) trend: inference from large ensemble model simulations

Abstract Concurrent with global warming, the Eurasian continent has experienced frequent cold winters in recent decades. Although still debatable, such Eurasian winter cooling, which was particularly pronounced in the late 20 th century, has been attributed to internal climate variability, the process of which remains elusive. By examining multi-model large ensemble simulations, this study explores the potential sources of internal climate variability responsible for the Eurasian winter cooling trend over 1987–2006. Model simulations show a large ensemble spread in the Eurasian winter temperature trend with an ensemble mean close to zero. A comparison of the ensemble members shows that a circulation pattern favorable for the Eurasian cooling is characterized by the anticyclonic and cyclonic enhancements of seal level pressure (SLP) trend in the sub-Arctic and Aleutian regions, respectively. This dipolar SLP trend is closely related to the deep Arctic warming, the change in midlatitude snow cover, and the enhancement of atmospheric convection over the tropical western Pacific. This result suggests that the Eurasian winter cooling is likely associated not only to the changes in mid- to high-latitude conditions but also to the changes in tropical convection. The possible mechanism of the tropically-induced Aleutian low deepening is also discussed.