Risk analysis of China's renewable energy cooperation with belt and road economies

International cooperation for renewable energy under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plays a pivotal role in the transition to low-carbon energy in BRI developing countries. However, the rise in energy, debt, food, and geopolitical crises, along with the unique internal challenges found in different BRI developing countries, introduce multiple uncertainties to international renewable energy cooperation (IREC). Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the risks associated with IREC across different BRI countries by incorporating international cooperation theory. This study proposes an analytical framework comprising cooperation consensus–state capacity–institutional environment, which encompasses the willingness to cooperate, national capabilities, and international institutional considerations. An evaluation indicator system is constructed based on this framework. The study optimizes the indicator weights obtained from expert surveys using the analytic hierarchy process and the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation method. A quantitative assessment of IREC risks was conducted for 114 BRI countries from 2010 to 2020. The results indicate a gradual reduction in IREC risks between China and BRI countries. Regional risk assessments reveal that Southeast Asia exhibits the lowest average risk, while Africa not only records the highest average risk but also indicates substantial cooperation potential. Therefore, we recommend a comprehensive approach to risk mitigation. Such an approach would include gradually improving cooperation mechanisms, promoting both top-down and bottom-up cooperation, encouraging the involvement of multiple stakeholders, and prioritizing early-stage risk assessments and research.