A Study on the Development of China’s Financial Leasing Industry Based on Principal Component Analysis and ARIMA Model

The sustainable development of China’s financial leasing industry is a growing concern among scholars. This paper analyzes the development data of China’s financial leasing industry from 2008–2021, using the dimensions of scale, speed, efficiency, structure, and quality. By employing principal component analysis, we construct the development index of China’s financial leasing industry and analyze the reasons for changes in the development level of the industry from the internal structure of the index. The study finds that scale serves as a key factor in the development of China’s financial leasing industry. While the contribution value of the structure factor shows fluctuations, the contribution values of the return and risk factors remain relatively stable. Using the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) prediction model based on the principal component analysis, we establish the prediction model of the financial leasing industry change in the coming years. The study reveals that the financial leasing industry has entered a period of transformation, where the growth rate of its scale has dropped. Furthermore, this paper offers proposals to address the increasingly prominent asset-liability maturity mismatch problem, promote business structure optimization, enhance the contribution value of the structure factor and the income factor, and facilitate sustainable, higher-quality industry development.