Using serum anti-Müllerian hormone levels to predict the chance of live birth after spontaneous or assisted conception: a systematic review and meta-analysis

STUDY QUESTION: Is serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level predictive of cumulative live birth (CLB) rate after ART or in women trying to conceive naturally? SUMMARY ANSWER: Serum AMH level is linked to CLB after IVF/ICSI but data are lacking after IUI or in women trying to conceive without ART. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Serum AMH level is a marker of ovarian reserve and a good predictor of ovarian response after controlled ovarian stimulation. It is unclear whether AMH measurement can predict CLB in spontaneous or assisted conception. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken to assess whether serum AMH level may predict chances of CLB in infertile women undergoing IVF/ICSI or IUI and/or chances of live birth in women having conceived naturally. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using the following keywords: 'AMH', 'anti-mullerian hormone', 'live-birth', 'cumulative live birth'. Searches were conducted from January 2004 to April 2021 on PubMed and Embase. Two independent reviewers carried out study selection, quality, and risk of bias assessment as well as data extraction. Odds ratios were estimated using a random-effect model. Pre-specified sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were performed. The primary outcome was CLB. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A total of 32 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Overall, 27 articles were included in the meta-analysis of the relation between AMH and CLB or AMH and LB after IVF/ICSI. A non-linear positive relation was found in both cases. A polynomial fraction was the best model to describe it but no discriminant AMH threshold was shown, especially no serum AMH level threshold below which live birth could not be achieved after IVF/ICSI. After IVF-ICSI, only four studies reported CLB rate according to AMH level. No statistically significant differences in mean serum AMH levels were shown between patients with and without CLB, but with a high heterogeneity. After exclusion of two studies with high risks of bias, there was no more heterogeneity [I2 = 0%] and the mean AMH level was statistically significantly higher in women with CLB. There were not enough articles/data to assess the ability of AMH to predict CLB rate or find an AMH threshold after IUI or in women without history of infertility trying to conceive without ART. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The systematic review and meta-analysis had some limitations owing to the limits and bias of the studies included. In the present meta-analysis, heterogeneity may have been caused by different baseline characteristics in study participants, different stimulating protocols for ART, different serum AMH level thresholds used and the use of various assays for serum AMH. This could explain, in part, the absence of a discriminating AMH threshold found in this analysis. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Serum AMH level is linked to CLB rate after IVF/ICSI but no discriminating threshold can be established, therefore low serum AMH level should not be used as the sole criterion for rejecting IVF treatment, especially in young patients. Data are lacking concerning its predictive value after IUI or in women trying to conceive without ART. Our findings may be helpful to counsel candidate couples to IVF-ICSI. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: No external funding was obtained for this study. There are no conflicts of interest. REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO CRD42021269332.