Changes in the combination of the triglyceride-glucose index and obesity indicators estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is closely associated with the triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and its related indicators, particularly its combination with obesity indices. However, there is limited research on the relationship between changes in TyG-related indices and CVD, as most studies have focused on baseline TyG-related indices. Methods The data for this prospective cohort study were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. The exposures were changes in TyG-related indices and cumulative TyG-related indices from 2012 to 2015. The K-means algorithm was used to classify changes in each TyG-related index into four classes (Class 1 to Class 4). Multivariate logistic regressions were used to evaluate the associations between the changes in TyG-related indices and the incidence of CVD. Results In total, 3243 participants were included in this study, of whom 1761 (54.4%) were female, with a mean age of 57.62 years at baseline. Over a 5-year follow-up, 637 (19.6%) participants developed CVD. Fully adjusted logistic regression analyses revealed significant positive associations between changes in TyG-related indices, cumulative TyG-related indices and the incidence of CVD. Among these changes in TyG-related indices, changes in TyG-waist circumference (WC) showed the strongest association with incident CVD. Compared to the participants in Class 1 of changes in TyG-WC, the odds ratio (OR) for participants in Class 2 was 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.84), the OR for participants in Class 3 was 1.54 (95% CI 1.15–2.07), and the OR for participants in Class 4 was 1.94 (95% CI 1.34–2.80). Moreover, cumulative TyG-WC exhibited the strongest association with incident CVD among cumulative TyG-related indices. Compared to the participants in Quartile 1 of cumulative TyG-WC, the OR for participants in Quartile 2 was 1.33 (95% CI 1.00–1.76), the OR for participants in Quartile 3 was 1.46 (95% CI 1.09–1.96), and the OR for participants in Quartile 4 was 1.79 (95% CI 1.30–2.47). Conclusions Changes in TyG-related indices are independently associated with the risk of CVD. Changes in TyG-WC are expected to become more effective indicators for identifying individuals at a heightened risk of CVD.