[The predictive value of ureteral wall area for impacted ureteral stones].

Objective: To investigate the clinical indicators for preoperative prediction of impacted ureteral stones and analyze the predictive value of ureteral wall area(UWA). Methods: A total of 197 patients who underwent ureteroscopic lithotripsy due to ureteral stones at our institution from January to December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Preoperative patient age, gender, body mass index (BMI), history of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, side of stone, location of stone, maximum diameter of stone, CT value of stone, C-reactive protein (CRP), creatinine, renal pelvis diameter, ureteral wall thickness and UWA were collected. Patients were divided into impacted and non-impacted groups according to whether the stones were impacted intraoperatively. Univariate analysis was used to compare the differences in each clinical indicator between the two groups, and multivariate logistic regression was performed to analyze the independent predictors of impacted stones for those with differences. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the predictive power of each independent predictor, and the Delong test was used to analyze whether the difference in the area under the curve (AUC) of each independent predictor was statistically significant. Results: All 197 patients successfully completed the operation, aged 51 (36, 56) years; 137 males and 60 females. According to the results of ureteroscopy, they were divided into 82 cases of impacted ureteral stones and 115 cases of non-impacted ureteral stones. Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in maximum stone diameter, stone CT value, renal pelvis diameter, ureteral wall thickness and ureteral wall area between the two groups (P<0.05); There was no significant difference in age, gender, BMI, history of hypertension, diabetes, stone side, location of stone, CRP and creatinine (P>0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that stone CT value (P<0.01), ureteral wall thickness (P<0.001) and ureteral wall area were independent predictors of impacted ureteral stones (P<0.001). The ROC curve was used to compare the predictive efficacy of independent predictors of stone CT value, ureteral wall thickness and ureteral wall area. The area under the ureteral wall area curve was the largest (AUC = 0.901, 95%CI: 0.859-0.943, P<0.001), followed by ureteral wall thickness (AUC = 0.799, 95%CI: 0.736-0.862, P<0.001) and stone CT value (AUC = 0.700, 95%CI: 0.626-0.775, P<0.001). By Delong test, there were significant differences in AUC between ureteral wall area and stone CT value (Z=4.527, P<0.001) and ureteral wall thickness (Z=3.407, P<0.001). The best predictive value of ureteral wall area was 79.6 mm2. The sensitivity and specificity of this critical value for predicting ureteral incarcerated calculi were 80.1% and 89.5%. Conclusions: The UWA, ureteral wall thickness as well as the CT value of stones were all independent predictors of impacted ureteral stones, and UWA had a better predictive value.目的： 探究分析输尿管壁面积对嵌顿性输尿管结石的预测价值。 方法： 回顾性分析2020年1至12月在合肥市第二人民医院因输尿管结石行输尿管镜碎石术197例患者临床资料。收集术前患者年龄、性别、体质指数（BMI）、高血压病史、糖尿病史、结石侧别、结石部位、结石最大径、结石CT值、C反应蛋白（CRP）、肌酐、肾盂直径、输尿管壁厚度和输尿管壁面积等指标。根据术中结石是否嵌顿将患者分为嵌顿组和非嵌顿组。用单因素分析比较两组患者各项临床指标差异，对有差异的指标进行多因素logistic回归分析嵌顿性结石的独立预测因素。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析各独立预测因素的预测效能，Delong检验分析各独立预测因素的ROC曲线下面积（AUC）差异是否有统计学意义。 结果： 197例患者均顺利完成手术，年龄的M（Q1，Q3）为51（36，56）岁；男137例，女60例；根据输尿管镜下结果分为嵌顿性输尿管结石82例，非嵌顿性输尿管结石115例。单因素分析显示两组患者结石最大径、结石CT值、肾盂直径、输尿管壁厚度、输尿管壁面积差异均有统计学意义（P<0.05）；而年龄、性别、BMI、高血压病史、糖尿病史、结石侧别、结石部位、CRP、肌酐差异均无统计学意义（P>0.05）。多因素logistic回归分析显示结石CT值（P<0.01）、输尿管壁厚度（P<0.001）、输尿管壁面积均为嵌顿性输尿管结石的独立预测因素（P<0.001）。采用ROC曲线比较结石CT值、输尿管壁厚度、输尿管壁面积独立预测因素预测效能，输尿管壁面积AUC最大（AUC=0.901，95%CI：0.859~0.943，P<0.001），其次为输尿管壁厚度（AUC=0.799，95%CI：0.736~0.862，P<0.001）、结石CT值（AUC=0.700，95%CI：0.626~0.775，P<0.001）。经Delong检验，输尿管壁面积与结石CT值（Z= 4.527，P<0.001）和输尿管壁厚度（Z=3.407，P<0.001）AUC差异均有统计学意义。输尿管壁面积的最佳预测值为79.6 mm2，该临界值预测输尿管嵌顿性结石敏感度为80.1%，特异度为89.5%。 结论： 输尿管壁面积、输尿管壁厚度以及结石CT值均是嵌顿性输尿管结石的独立预测因素，且输尿管壁面积的预测价值更高。.