Estrogen profile- and pharmacogenetics-based lamotrigine dosing regimen optimization: Recommendations for pregnant women with epilepsy

During pregnancy, various physiological changes occur that can alter the pharmacokinetics of antiepileptic drugs, such as lamotrigine (LTG). Anticipating the change in LTG dose required to achieve a pre-pregnancy target concentration is challenging. This study aimed to develop a refined population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) model of LTG in pregnant women with epilepsy (WWE) to identify factors explaining the variability in pharmacokinetics and to establish a model-informed individualized dosing regimen. On that basis, a coarsened model containing only clinical variables was also developed to examine its predictive performance compared to the refined model. In total, 322 concentration-time points from 51 pregnant WWE treated with LTG were employed to establish a refined PopPK model that included endogenous estrogen profiles, variants of candidate genes encoding LTG-metabolizing enzymes and -transporter proteins, and other clinical variables and a coarsened model that included only clinical variables, respectively. Data from an additional 11 patients were used for external validation of these two models. A nonlinear mixed-effect modeling approach was used for PopPK analysis of LTG. The standard goodness-of-fit method, bootstrap, normalized prediction distribution errors and external evaluation were adopted to estimate the stability and predictive performance of the candidate models. Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to compare the goodness of fit between these two models. A lower AIC indicates a better fit of the data and the preferred model. Recommended dosing regimens for pregnant WWE were selected using Monte Carlo simulation based on the established optimal model. In the refined PopPK model, the population mean of apparent LTG clearance (CL/F) in pregnant WWE was estimated to be 2.82 L/h, with an inter-individual variability of 23.6%. PopPK analysis indicated that changes in estrogen profile during pregnancy were the predominant reason for the significant variations in LTG-CL/F. Up to the 3rd trimester, the concentration accumulation effect of E2 increased LTG-CL/F by 5.109 L/h from baseline levels. Contrary to effect of E2, E3 as the main circulating estrogen in pregnancy with a peak value of 34.41 ng/mL is 1000-fold higher than that in non-pregnancy reduced LTG-CL/F by 1.413 L/h. In addition, the UGT2B7 rs4356975 C > T and ABCB1 rs1128503 A > G variants may contribute to a better understanding of the inter-individual variability in LTG-CL/F. LTG-CL/F was 1.66-fold higher in UGT2B7 rs4356975 CT or TT genotype carriers than in CC genotype carriers. In contrast, ABCB1 rs1128503 GG genotype carriers had only 71.9% of the LTG-CL/F of AA or AG genotype carriers. In the coarsened PopPK model, the gestational age was a promising predictor of changes in LTG-CL/F. When comparing these two models, the refined PopPK model was favored over the coarsened PopPK model (AIC = −30.899 vs. −20.017). Monte Carlo simulation based on optimal PopPK model revealed that the LTG dosage administered to carriers of the UGT2B7 rs4356975 CT or TT genotype required a 33–50% increase to reach the pre-pregnancy target concentration, and carriers of the ABCB1 rs1128503 GG genotype required a 33–66% lower dose of LTG than carriers of the ABCB1 rs1128503 AA or AG genotype. Changes in estrogen profile during pregnancy was a better predictor of variations in LTG-CL/F than gestational age. The developed model based on estrogen profile and pharmacogenetics can serve as a foundation for further optimization of dosing regimens of LTG in pregnant WWE.