Liver stiffness-based optimization of hepatocellular carcinoma risk score in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Background & Aims CU-HCC score is accurate to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. However, diagnosis of cirrhosis may be incorrect based on ultrasonography, leading to some errors in HCC prediction. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of LSM-HCC score, refined from CU-HCC score with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using transient elastography to predict HCC. Methods A prospective cohort study of 1555 consecutive CHB patients referred for transient elastography examination; 1035 and 520 patients randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts, respectively. Clinical cirrhosis of CU-HCC score was substituted by LSM and analyzed with multivariable Cox regression analysis with other parameters. Results During a mean follow-up of 69 months, 38 patients (3.7%) in the training cohort and 17 patients (3.4%) in the validation cohort developed HCC. A new LSM-HCC score composed of LSM, age, serum albumin and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels were derived, which ranges from 0 to 30. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of LSM-HCC score were higher than those of CU-HCC score (0.83–0.89 vs. 0.75–0.81). By applying the cutoff value of 11, the score excluded future HCC with high negative predictive value (99.4%–100%) at 5 years. Conclusions LSM-HCC score constructed from LSM, age, serum albumin and HBV DNA level is accurate to predict HCC in CHB patients. CU-HCC score is accurate to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. However, diagnosis of cirrhosis may be incorrect based on ultrasonography, leading to some errors in HCC prediction. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of LSM-HCC score, refined from CU-HCC score with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using transient elastography to predict HCC. A prospective cohort study of 1555 consecutive CHB patients referred for transient elastography examination; 1035 and 520 patients randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts, respectively. Clinical cirrhosis of CU-HCC score was substituted by LSM and analyzed with multivariable Cox regression analysis with other parameters. During a mean follow-up of 69 months, 38 patients (3.7%) in the training cohort and 17 patients (3.4%) in the validation cohort developed HCC. A new LSM-HCC score composed of LSM, age, serum albumin and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels were derived, which ranges from 0 to 30. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of LSM-HCC score were higher than those of CU-HCC score (0.83–0.89 vs. 0.75–0.81). By applying the cutoff value of 11, the score excluded future HCC with high negative predictive value (99.4%–100%) at 5 years. LSM-HCC score constructed from LSM, age, serum albumin and HBV DNA level is accurate to predict HCC in CHB patients.