Variation in Estimated Surgical Procedure Times Across Patient Characteristics and Surgeon Specialty

The time involved in performing a procedure is a key factor in determining physician payments by Medicare. However, there are long-standing concerns regarding the accuracy of the time estimates generated by the American Medical Association/Specialty Society Relative Value Scale Update Committee surveys that are used in the valuation process, and there have been calls to use other data sources to estimate procedure times.To compare estimated procedure times that come from claims with the times used in Medicare's valuation process.Building off prior work using Medicare fee-for-service claims, procedure times were estimated from linked anesthesia claims data for 1349 different Current Procedure Terminology codes that are typically performed with anesthesia. All procedures in the nation performed in 2018 for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries were included in the analysis. These estimated times were compared with the times used in the valuation process. Analysis took place from February to November 2021.Estimated procedure times using anesthesia claims were compared with the procedure time used in valuation by calculating an estimated-to-valuation procedure time ratio for each code. The valuation procedure time is publicly reported by Medicare. The mean and median ratio are presented over all procedures and for select high-volume codes as well as by patient characteristics (age, sex, and risk score) and specialty of the physician performing the procedure.Across 4.9 million procedures in this analysis, the mean estimated procedure time was 27% lower than the time used in the valuation process. There were notable exceptions, for which the mean estimated procedure time equaled or exceeded the valuation time including total hip arthroplasty (5% longer) and total knee arthroplasty (equal duration). Within a given code, older patients and those with more illness had longer procedure times. There was substantial variation across specialties in the percent difference between mean estimated and valuation procedure times ranging from gastroenterology (36% shorter) and ophthalmology (35% shorter) to cardiac surgery (2% longer) and thoracic surgery (7% longer).Claims-based procedure times could be used to improve the accuracy of valuations for procedures.