Analysis of the distribution characteristics and driving factors of land use conflict potentials in the Bohai Rim coastal zone

Land use in coastal zones faces the challenge of overlapping and competing among agriculture, construction, and ecological functions. Identifying land use conflicts (LUCs) and exploring their driving factors are the premise to alleviate the problem of ‘competing for land’. Firstly, this study constructed a multi-objective evaluation system from three perspectives: agricultural land, construction land, and ecological land suitability. Then, the types of LUC were divided based on the suitability of spatial combination. Finally, we analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics and the main driving factors of LUCs in the Bohai Rim region of China. In addition, we discussed the situation of LUCs along the sea-land direction. Results showed an obvious spatio-temporal mismatch in the spatial layout of agricultural land, construction land, and ecological land suitability in coastal zones. On a grid-scale, high, moderate, and low conflict zones accounted for 17.50%, 52.68%, and 4.64%, respectively. Moreover, there were significant differences in different forms of conflict. At the country scale, conflict intensity showed a regional distribution characteristic of "high in the South and low in the North", with significantly spatial positive correlation. In addition, both natural and socio-economic factors had significant effects on the spatial clustering distribution characteristics of LUCs. We recommend that land policymakers adopt different governance strategies according to conflict degree, spatial distribution, manifestation, and influencing factors. • Established a research framework of potential LUCs based on land use suitability. • Ecological and construction suitability land are complementary in space. • Most serious conflicts are agriculture and construction, agriculture and ecology. • Natural factors are the basis of LUCs, while socio-economic factors are engine. • Each LUC type shows different trends along the sea-land direction.