Estimating the impacts of climate change on crop yields and N2O emissions for conventional and no-tillage in Southwestern Ontario, Canada

环境科学 耕作 含水量 气候变化 温室气体 降水 土壤碳 作物轮作 作物产量 土壤科学 土壤水分 作物 农学 气象学 地理 工程类 生物 生态学 岩土工程
作者
Wentian He,Jingyi Yang,C. F. Drury,Ward Smith,Brian Grant,Ping He,Budong Qian,Wei Zhou,Gerrit Hoogenboom
出处
期刊:Agricultural Systems [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:159: 187-198 被引量:83
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.025
摘要

Accurately predicting the impacts of higher temperatures, different precipitation rates and elevated CO2 concentrations on crop yields and GHG emissions is required in order to develop adaptation strategies. The objectives of this study were to calibrate and evaluate a regionalized denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model using measured crop yield, soil temperature, moisture and N2O emissions, and to explore the impacts of climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5) on crop yields and N2O emissions in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. This simulation study was based on a winter wheat-maize-soybean rotation under conventional tillage (CT) and no tillage (NT) practices at Woodslee, Ontario, Canada. The model was calibrated using various statistics including the d index (0.85–0.99), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE > 0) and nRMSE (normalized root mean square error, nRMSE < 10%) all of which provided "good" to "excellent" agreement between simulated and measured crop yields for both CT and NT practices. The calibrated DNDC model had a "good" performance in assessing soil temperature. However, there were no differences in simulated soil temperatures between CT and NT treatments and this was attributed to deficiencies in the temperature algorithm which does not consider the insulation effect of surface crop residues in the DNDC model. The DNDC model provided a reasonable prediction of soil water content in the 0–0.1 m depth, but it overestimated soil water content during dry conditions mainly because the model was unable to characterize preferential flow through clay cracks. Under future climate scenarios, soybean and maize yields were significantly increased compared to the baseline scenarios due to the benefits from higher optimum temperature for maize and increased CO2 for soybean. The mean annual N2O emissions for winter wheat significantly increased by about 38.1% for CT and 17.3% for NT under future RCP scenarios when using the current crop cultivars. However, when a new cultivar with higher TDD (thermal degree days) was used, the mean winter wheat yield increased by 39.5% under future climate scenarios compared to current cultivars and there were significant reductions in N2O emissions. The higher crop heat units cultivars and longer growing season length would contribute to increased biomass accumulation and crop N uptake. Hence there would be co-benefits with the development of high TDD cultivars in the future as they would not only increase crop yields but also reduce N2O emissions.
最长约 10秒,即可获得该文献文件

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
大橙子发布了新的文献求助10
刚刚
在水一方应助Herisland采纳,获得10
2秒前
笨笨小刺猬完成签到,获得积分10
4秒前
4秒前
科研小达人完成签到,获得积分10
7秒前
追寻凌青完成签到,获得积分10
9秒前
渡劫完成签到,获得积分10
10秒前
丫丫完成签到 ,获得积分10
10秒前
lxy发布了新的文献求助10
11秒前
bono完成签到 ,获得积分10
14秒前
DentistRui完成签到,获得积分10
14秒前
16秒前
laber应助忧伤的步美采纳,获得50
19秒前
淡淡月饼发布了新的文献求助20
20秒前
茶茶应助虞无声采纳,获得50
20秒前
大橙子发布了新的文献求助10
22秒前
wangnn完成签到,获得积分10
23秒前
xzz完成签到,获得积分10
25秒前
阿绿发布了新的文献求助10
29秒前
30秒前
量子星尘发布了新的文献求助10
30秒前
manman完成签到 ,获得积分20
33秒前
太清完成签到,获得积分10
37秒前
山雀完成签到,获得积分10
39秒前
伊一完成签到,获得积分10
41秒前
哭泣笑柳发布了新的文献求助10
47秒前
琳琅发布了新的文献求助10
52秒前
xue完成签到 ,获得积分10
53秒前
liars完成签到 ,获得积分10
53秒前
搞怪人雄完成签到,获得积分10
56秒前
落后的夜阑完成签到,获得积分10
56秒前
大橙子发布了新的文献求助10
59秒前
彪行天下完成签到,获得积分10
1分钟前
danli完成签到 ,获得积分10
1分钟前
guangyu完成签到,获得积分10
1分钟前
学术老6完成签到,获得积分10
1分钟前
c123完成签到 ,获得积分10
1分钟前
恐怖稽器人完成签到,获得积分10
1分钟前
WXR完成签到,获得积分10
1分钟前
科研小白完成签到,获得积分10
1分钟前
高分求助中
【提示信息,请勿应助】关于scihub 10000
Les Mantodea de Guyane: Insecta, Polyneoptera [The Mantids of French Guiana] 3000
徐淮辽南地区新元古代叠层石及生物地层 3000
The Mother of All Tableaux: Order, Equivalence, and Geometry in the Large-scale Structure of Optimality Theory 3000
Handbook of Industrial Diamonds.Vol2 1100
Global Eyelash Assessment scale (GEA) 1000
Picture Books with Same-sex Parented Families: Unintentional Censorship 550
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 4038157
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3575869
关于积分的说明 11373842
捐赠科研通 3305650
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1819255
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 892655
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 815022