Analysis of Magnitude–Frequency Distribution of Earthquakes in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China

Abstract The Sichuan basin is characterized by underdeveloped active geological structures and low seismic activities. In recent years, an increase in seismicity has been observed in the southern Sichuan basin, which includes small earthquakes induced by water injection during shale gas exploitation and M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, causing unexpected damage and casualties. This necessitates a comprehensive analysis of the magnitude–frequency distribution of the current seismicity. In this study, we examined the current seismicity using instrumental earthquake records at different periods and estimated the temporal and spatial variations in b-value. We found that the b-values widely vary in the Sichuan basin and analyzed the spatial differences in b-value in seven different earthquake clusters. The results show that the intense fault movement on the western boundary of the Sichuan basin might be the main controlling factor of the increased seismicity in the southern basin instead of being induced by water injection. Furthermore, earthquakes in the Sichuan basin follow the same size distribution as the events on the boundary faults and the Sichuan–Yunnan rhombus active block. Thus, it is appropriate to consider the magnitude–frequency distribution of earthquakes for the Sichuan basin and the Sichuan–Yunnan rhombus block together rather than separately. These results may help improve the recurrence models in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region.