Pathways to achieve low-carbon transition in the transportation sector under the constraints of carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets: A comprehensive analysis of intra- and extra-industry factors

Carbon emission mechanisms in the transportation sector are complex due to a linkage of intra- and extra-industry factors. The decomposition techniques of emission reduction factors are more inclined to analyze conventional factors and need to pay more attention to non-conventional factors. This paper proposes a new analysis framework and builds the LMDI@1 model based on the general analysis theory of index decomposition. In this direction, we calculate China's transportation carbon emissions (TCE) from 2005 to 2020 through direct and indirect sources. Within this model, extra-industry factors are linked into the system to analyze more clearly the degree of factors' contribution to TCE changes in China's regional perspective and clarify potential factors' interaction patterns. We find that factors' contribution has temporal and regional differences. Intra-industry and extra-industry factors form four closed-loop carbon reduction paths at economic development, resource allocation, industrial structure, and resource endowment levels. Therefore, the low-carbon transition policy of China's transportation sector should consider the interaction between external policies and the endogenous environment.