Can forest carbon sequestration offset industrial CO2 emissions? A case study of Hubei Province, China

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are proposed by the Chinese government, which aims to reach the highest level of CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It is of great significance to accelerate green production and lead high-quality development. Energy carbon emissions account for 88% of total CO2 emissions, while forest carbon sequestration account for 80% of China's terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolutions of industrial energy consumption carbon emissions and forest carbon sequestration of Hubei Province, then demonstrated the offsetting effect of forest carbon sequestration on the industrial CO2 emissions. Our results documented energy carbon emissions and forest carbon sequestration in Hubei Province both increased from 2000 to 2020, with the growth rates of 4.9423 Mt/yr and 0.28015 Mt/yr. Forest carbon sequestration could offset energy carbon emissions before 2005, while the offsetting effect was weak due to the continuous increase in industrial energy consumption after 2005. Significant spatial heterogeneity was observed in both energy carbon emissions and forest carbon sequestration. Wuhan had the biggest carbon emission with annual average carbon emission of about 20.046 Mt, while Enshi had the biggest carbon sequestration with annual average forest carbon sequestration of about 14.411 Mt. Spatial autocorrelation between energy carbon emissions and forest carbon sequestration was significant in Hubei Province in the past two decades. Our findings provided evidence that local-scale forest carbon sequestration could offset carbon emissions caused by industrial energy consumption at a certain extent, helping to draw up the scientific energy-saving and emissions-reducing measures.