Trends in total nitrogen concentrations in the Three Rivers Headwater Region

It is important to protect the quality of the water in the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), known as the water tower of China, to guarantee the water security in downstream areas. However, because of a lack of long-term studies that span wide geographical areas, it is difficult to understand how the water resource in the TRHR should be protected. In this paper, we report the findings from our analysis of total nitrogen (TN) concentration data from 39 river monitoring stations for the period from 2012 to 2018. The water quality status was evaluated by comparing the concentrations with the national standards and calculating exceedance ratios for surface water. Trends were calculated with ordinary linear least-squares regression and a weighted least-squares (WLS) meta-analysis method. The results showed that the annual average TN concentrations in the TRHR rivers from 2012 to 2018 ranged from 0.68 to 1.06 mg/L, and were lower than those in the downstream reaches but higher than the global average in natural river waters. For the period from 2012 to 2018, the TN concentrations showed a highly significant increase (0.03 mg/L/year) across the entire TRHR and were increasing and decreasing at 71.8 % and 28.2 % of the stations, respectively. From the trend results, we divided the study area into two zones, one with increasing TN concentrations and one with decreasing TN concentrations. It is found that environmental factors had little influence on TN concentrations in the increasing and decreasing areas, but artificial factors such as population and restoration project areas contributed to the increases in TN concentrations in the increasing area. The TRHR remains a source of clean water in China; however, the water quality should be monitored closely, and measures should be implemented to protect the resource and mitigate the disturbances caused by human activities.