Research on peak prediction of urban differentiated carbon emissions -- a case study of Shandong Province, China

Cities are the main source and gathering place of carbon emissions. Therefore, it is an effective way to reach peak CO2 emissions before 2030 to make carbon emission prediction and implement differentiated carbon emission reduction schemes according to local conditions at the urban level. Taking Shandong Province as an example, this paper comprehensively explored the impact of 16 socio-economic factors on carbon emissions of different cities through the extended STIRPAT model. In order to reduce the uncertainty of the research results and achieve “one city, one policy”, firstly, the influencing factors of carbon emissions in different cities were screened through ridge regression equation, which were used as specific parameters of different cities in the scenario setting. Secondly, based on the actual development of different cities, this paper obtained the scenario combination scheme by freely combining different influencing factors to predict the peak time and peak value of carbon emissions. Based on the above measures, it could not only reflect the heterogeneous development of cities, but also ensure that the research results are close to the actual development of cities. The results show that 16 cities in Shandong Province show differential peak attainment. Among them, 8 cities have the best peak year around 2025, 5 cities have the best peak year around 2028, and 2 cities can achieve the peak before 2030. A comprehensive analysis of the timing and peaking of carbon emissions suggests that the best overall peaking year for Shandong Province could be 2028. In addition, according to the different influencing factors of carbon emission peak in each city, a set of carbon emission reduction scenarios with urban differentiation reaching the peak is proposed. This could provide a more comprehensive path choice direction for local governments to formulate carbon emission reduction action plans. Furthermore, this paper could be used as a reference for other provinces in China or other national regions to explore urban differentiated carbon peaking and to formulate operable carbon peaking solutions.