Radiomics nomogram based on multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging for predicting early recurrence in small hepatocellular carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation

Background There are few studies on the application of radiomics in the risk prediction of early recurrence (ER) after radiofrequency ablation (RFA). This study evaluated the value of a multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, mpMRI)-based radiomics nomogram in predicting ER of small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after RFA. Materials and methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 90 patients with small HCC who were treated with RFA. Patients were divided into two groups according to recurrence within 2 years: the ER group (n=38) and the non-ER group (n=52). Preoperative T1WI, T2WI, and contrast-enhanced MRI (CE-MRI) were used for radiomic analysis. Tumor segmentation was performed on the images and applied to extract 1316 radiomics features. The most predictive features were selected using analysis of variance + Mann–Whitney, Spearman’s rank correlation test, random forest (importance), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis. Radiomics models based on each sequence or combined sequences were established using logistic regression analysis. A predictive nomogram was constructed based on the radiomics score (rad-score) and clinical predictors. The predictive efficiency of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical efficacy of the nomogram. Results The radiomics model mpMRI, which is based on T1WI, T2WI, and CE-MRI sequences, showed the best predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.812 for the validation cohort. Combined with the clinical risk factors of albumin level, number of tumors, and rad-score of mpMRI, the AUC of the preoperative predictive nomogram in the training and validation cohorts were 0.869 and 0.812, respectively. DCA demonstrated that the combined nomogram is clinically useful. Conclusions The multi-parametric MRI-based radiomics nomogram has a high predictive value for ER of small HCC after RFA, which could be helpful for personalized risk stratification and further treatment decision-making for patients with small HCC.