The effects and influencing variables based on “supply‐direction‐demand” flow processing: Water provisioning services of Inner Mongolia's ecological shelters

Abstract The ecological shelter serves a dual purpose of protecting the target ecosystem from damage and benefitting surrounding ecosystems. One important ecosystem service provided by such areas is water provisioning service, which has significant impacts on the surrounding ecosystems due to its flow characteristics. This study aimed to simulate water resources in Inner Mongolia and its surrounding watersheds in 2010 and 2015 using a simplified service path attribution networks (SPANs) model. The InVEST software was utilized to simulate water provisions, and five types of water consumption were used to calculate the total water consumption. Probability statistics with BBNs were utilized to classify variables influencing water provisioning services and calculate state probabilities under different levels of water provisioning services. The results indicated that the remaining water resources in Inner Mongolia were 3.85 × 10 10 m 3 in 2010 and 1.92 × 10 10 m 3 in 2015. Additionally, the total net outflow from Inner Mongolia was 2.37 × 10 10 m 3 in 2010 and 1.58 × 10 10 m 3 in 2015. Inner Mongolia not only supplies water resources for its own needs but also supports the surrounding areas. Key variables influencing the amount of water‐provisioning services include precipitation, level of economic development, topography, and land use. This research highlights the considerable regional and transregional effects of water provisioning services provided by Inner Mongolia's ecological shelters by delineating the “supply‐flow‐demand” pathway, addressing the spatial correlation deficiency between supply and demand in the field of ecosystem service flow research. The findings of this study, focusing on a typical ecological shelter, can serve as a reference for future research in other similar shelters.