Patterns and Dominant Driving Factors of Carbon Storage Changes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Multiple Land Use Change Scenarios

Revealing the spatial–temporal evolution of carbon storage and its driving mechanisms in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau could provide support for decision making in the protection of regional ecosystems and the achievement of regional dual-carbon goals. In this study, the spatial–temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau was analyzed under various scenarios using PLUS-InVEST and a gravity center model, and the driving mechanisms of carbon storage were clarified with Geodetector. The results are as follows: (1) During 2000–2020, the areas of coniferous forest, evergreen broad-leaved forest, closed shrub, temperate shrub desert, multi-tree grassland, and grassland showed an increasing trend, while the areas of deciduous broad-leaved forest and mixed forest showed a decreasing trend. (2) During 2030–2060, there was a decreasing trend in the total carbon storage of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under three different scenarios. (3) During 2030–2060, the area of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau was mostly represented by carbon balance (56%), while the areas of carbon sources and carbon sinks showed a scattered distribution. (4) The precipitation and topographic factors with a q value of 0.888 played a dominant role in affecting the spatio-temporal variations in carbon storage in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. (5) In future ecological protection and restoration efforts, more high-quality farmlands should be protected and constructed, which could contribute to the achievement of dual-carbon goals. In addition, the hydrothermal conditions should be improved to aid the carbon cycle process in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.