Seismic Fragility Analysis of Retaining Walls Dependent on Initial Conditions

Fragility curves of retaining walls constitute an efficient tool for the estimation of seismic risk and can be utilized for prevention from potential damage or for immediate decision-making. In this work, fragility curves for cantilever retaining walls of three different heights are proposed, considering cohesionless soil materials. The seismic response of the soil-wall system, in terms of permanent vertical ground displacement of the backfill soil and permanent horizontal displacement of the wall’s base, is estimated by conducting non-linear time history analyses, through the 2D finite element simulation method. Five initial conditions are investigated regarding the value of the global factor of safety (FS) under static conditions. An initial value of FS equal to 1.5 is considered for dry conditions. If the presence of the water table is taken into account, the corresponding FS drops to values ranging from 1.4 to 1.1. Parameters that characterize seismic intensity are evaluated based on criteria, in order to identify the intensity measures that best correlate with the system’s response. Three damage states are adopted, corresponding to minor, moderate, and extensive damage. The approach of combined damage criteria is also investigated. Finally, fragility curves are derived demonstrating the degree of dependency on initial conditions.