Analysis of the spread distance of pine wilt disease based on a high volume of spatiotemporal data recording of infected trees

Pine wilt disease (PWD) is the most destructive forest disease in Far East Asia and is a major concern in South Korea, China, Taiwan, and Japan. This disease naturally spreads to nearby areas via insect vectors, whereas anthropogenic spread occurs randomly and transfers the disease far away. However, few studies have analyzed the spread patterns and distances of PWD to establish effective monitoring strategies. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to determine the boundary distance distinguishing natural and anthropogenic spread using a regression analysis of monitoring records for a six-year period from South Korea. In addition, we developed a MaxEnt model using both climatic and anthropogenic factors to predict the potential distribution of PWD. The results showed that the average distance of the natural spread from 2017 to 2021 was approximately 13.8 km, while the model identified that seasonal climatic conditions exacerbated PWD spread. Consequently, a control strategy to prevent the spread of PWD should be effectively designed based on climate and boundary distance.