Predictors and Etiologies of Clinical Relapse Among Patients With Ulcerative Colitis in Deep Remission

Goal: The objective of this study was to evaluate for potential predictors and etiologies of clinical relapse among patients with ulcerative colitis in deep remission. Background: Patients displaying deep (endoscopic and histologic) remission have a decreased cumulative risk of relapse in ulcerative colitis of <10% per year, but predictors and etiologies of relapse in this population are poorly understood. Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study utilizing electronic medical records at Tufts Medical Center to identify patients in deep remission, classified as having both endoscopic remission (Mayo Endoscopic Score of 0 or 1) and histologic remission (Simplified Geboes Score 0.2). We evaluated the cumulative risk of clinical relapse following attainment of deep remission and examined predictors and etiologies of relapse. Results: Among 139 patients with ulcerative colitis in deep remission, the cumulative risk of relapse was <10% and <20% at 1 and 2 years. Patients with complete normalization of mucosa (Geboes=0) and normalization of C-reactive protein (<7.48 mg/dL) at the time of remission were associated with a lower risk of relapse. Discontinuation of therapy was the most commonly identified etiology of relapse. Conclusions: Patients in deep remission have a 1-year risk of clinical relapse of <10%, with those demonstrating a non-normalized mucosa or elevated C-reactive protein predictive of persistent relapse risk. Discontinuation of therapy or minor histologic changes may drive relapse among those in deep remission.