Effects and contributions of meteorological drought on agricultural drought under different climatic zones and vegetation types in Northwest China

Meteorological drought is one of the driving forces behind agricultural drought. The response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought remains poorly understood under different climatic zones and vegetation types in Northwest China (NWC). Furthermore, the contribution of climate factors and human activities to agricultural drought in NWC remains unclear. We combined the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the satellite Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) to characterize meteorological and agricultural drought, respectively. Based on the trend analysis, Spearman's correlation coefficient and residual trend analysis, we studied the variation characteristics and response relationships of meteorological and agricultural drought under different climatic zones and vegetation types in NWC from 2000 to 2019 and evaluated the contributions of climate factors (SPEI and precipitation) and human activities on the agricultural drought. The results showed that under different climatic zones and vegetation types, the SPEI and VCI all showed an upward trend in NWC, indicating that meteorological and agricultural drought slowed down. It was further pointed out that the climate was humidified and the soil moisture increased in NWC. Meteorological drought has a definite effect on agricultural drought, and the effect varied non-linearly along the drought gradient with the strongest responses in the semiarid ecosystems. Drought resistance of different climatic zones and vegetation types was different, caused by the specific sensitivity and uniqueness of local arid environment. Among them, grasslands dominated the regional SPEI-VCI changes in NWC. The combined effects of climatic factors (SPEI and precipitation) and human activities promoted the variation of agricultural drought in NWC. Climatic factors were the main drivers of agricultural drought change in grasslands, with the contribution rate reaching 76.71%. However, human activities all contributed significantly to agricultural drought than climatic factors, especially in the Loess Plateau, Junggar Basin and northern Tianshan Mountains, where the positive contribution of human activities exceeded 80%. Thus, the SPEI and VCI can effectively reveal the change law of meteorological drought and agricultural drought in NWC. This study provides a theoretical basis for drought disaster relationship assessment.