Potential to decarbonize the commercial building operation of the top two emitters by 2060

Building operations are the last steps to achieve global carbon neutrality, especially commercial building operations with high emission abatement potential. Taking China and the United States (U.S.) as cases, this study is the first to illustrate a stepwise decarbonization potential to carbon neutrality in regard to global commercial building operations. The results indicate that the historical annual carbon abatement intensity in China's commercial building operations in 2001–2018 was 9.8 kg of carbon dioxide per square meter (kgCO2/m2) or 59.9 kgCO2/person, while the annual carbon abatement intensity in the U.S. during the same time was 17.7 kgCO2/m2 or 353.7 kgCO2/person. In the moderate decarbonization scenario, China's commercial building operations will reach the carbon peak at 1365 (± 255) mega-tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) in 2039 (± 5), while the carbon lock-in status in the U.S. will stabilize at 664 (± 155) MtCO2 after 2030. To further conduct deep decarbonization and realize carbon neutrality, strategies of building-integrated power generation, building electricity decarbonization, and building energy efficiency can achieve 34.3%, 29.7%, and 22.5% of carbon abatement in China and 31.0%, 45.4%, and 10.2% of carbon abatement in the U.S., respectively, by 2060. Moreover, the current mode of improving the energy efficiency level of commercial building operations was reviewed to seek the best practical way to decarbonize operations. Overall, this study provides a reference of a stepwise data analysis for decarbonization potential on commercial building operations across different emitters.