Role of Management Strategies and Environmental Factors in Determining the Emissions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds from Urban Greenspaces

Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from urban greenspace have recently become a global concern. To identify key factors affecting the dynamics of urban BVOC emissions, we built an estimation model and utilized the city of Hangzhou in southeastern China as an example. A series of single-factor scenarios were first developed, and then nine multifactor scenarios using a combination of different single-factor scenarios were built to quantify the effects of environmental changes and urban management strategies on urban BVOC emissions. Results of our model simulations showed that (1) annual total BVOC emissions from the metropolitan area of Hangzhou were 4.7 × 108 g of C in 2010 and were predicted to be 1.2–3.2 Gg of C (1 Gg = 109 g) in our various scenarios in 2050, (2) urban management played a more important role in determining future urban BVOC emissions than environmental changes, and (3) a high ecosystem service value (e.g., lowest BVOC/leaf mass ratio) could be achieved through positive coping in confronting environmental changes and adopting proactive urban management strategies on a local scale, that is, to moderately increase tree density while restricting excessive greenspace expansion and optimizing the species composition of existing and newly planted trees.