经济
通货紧缩
膨胀(宇宙学)
石油供应
货币经济学
石油价格
供应冲击
需求冲击
供求关系
经济衰退
货币政策
宏观经济学
凯恩斯经济学
计量经济学
工程类
物理
机械工程
理论物理学
作者
Knut Are Aastveit,Hilde C. Bjørnland,Jamie Cross
摘要
Abstract Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer-lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession.
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