The triglyceride–glucose index is a more powerful surrogate marker for predicting the prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus than the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance

Insulin resistance is an independent risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes. Therefore, this study compared the predictability of the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) for the prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes.We analyzed data from 9730 adults aged 40-69 years at baseline and 7783 participants without diabetes who were followed up in the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study survey. From 2001 to 2002 (baseline survey) to 2013-2014, this survey was conducted biennially (six follow-ups). The average follow-up period was 9.0 years.The TyG index showed better predictability for the prevalence of type 2 diabetes than HOMA-IR (TyG index: 0.784, HOMA-IR: 0.728, p < 0.001). The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve of the TyG index for incident type 2 diabetes was 0.640 (0.628-0.652), which was significantly higher than that of HOMA-IR [0.531 (0.521-0.541)] (p < 0.001).The TyG index is superior to HOMA-IR for predicting type 2 diabetes. The TyG index could, therefore, be more useful for the early detection and prevention of type 2 diabetes.