Pancreatic necrosis volume for predicting readmission and reintervention in acute necrotizing pancreatitis

Purpose To determine the correlation between the pancreatic necrosis volume (PNV) and readmission as well as reintervention. Method This was a retrospective cohort study that included necrotizing pancreatitis (NP) patients who were examined with contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) one week before discharge. The PNV was calculated manually based on the postprocessing workstation software. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to determine the independent risk factors for readmission and reintervention. Results A total of 167 NP patients were included. Among them, 94 (56.3%) patients were readmitted after discharge, and 55 (32.9%) patients needed further invasive intervention. The median PNV of all patients was 376.6 (interquartile range (IQR), 129.3–820.5) cm3, and the PNV was significantly higher in patients needing readmission or reintervention. Multivariate analysis showed that PNV ≥ 620 cm3 (adjusted odds ratio (adjOR), 3.08; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.47–6.43; P = 0.003) and modified computed tomography severity index (CTSI) score ≥ 7 points (adjOR, 6.36; 95% CI, 2.05–10.70; P = 0.001) were independently associated with readmission. Stent or drainage tube placement at discharge (adjOR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.27–6.77; P = 0.011), PNV ≥ 620 cm3 (adjOR, 5.11; 95% CI, 2.19–11.95; P < 0.001), pancreatic parenchymal necrosis (adjOR, 3.37; 95% CI, 1.42–7.96; P = 0.006), and modified CTSI score ≥ 7 points (adjOR, 4.23; 95% CI, 1.46–12.27; P = 0.008) were independent risk factors for reintervention. Conclusions The PNV is a useful tool for quantifying pancreatic necrosis and is strongly associated with readmission and reintervention. Additional prospective studies with larger sample sizes are needed to confirm these findings.