Regional energy forecasting and risk assessment for energy security: New evidence from the Yangtze River Delta region in China

The huge energy consumption for the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region has caused the increased risks in energy security, thus influencing the achievement of the carbon-neutrality 2060 target in China. To this end, a novel modeling approach based on grey prediction model and cloud model is developed and applied in this paper. By the accuracy measurement, the mean absolute percentage error values of optimal non-linear metabolic grey model (ONMGM (1,1)) are all below 4%, which are lowest in the training data set of YRD region. So, the prediction capability of ONMGM (1,1) outperforms other grey prediction models. Based on the forecasting of ONMGM (1,1), Jiangsu Province has been a highly increasing trend from year 2021–2025. In contrast, the total energy consumption of Shanghai is lower than the other regions. The findings also show that the overall risk level of energy security will change from the medium to the very high in the year 2006–2025. Moreover, the traditional energy security will occupy vital positions for the coming years in the overall energy security of YRD region. Eventually, this study maybe provides some decision support to achieve the early warning of energy consumption and energy security between different regions. • A high-precision prediction model with optimization technique is proposed. • The prediction capability of ONMGM (1,1) outperforms other grey prediction models. • The YRD region's energy consumption from year 2021–2025 is forecasted. • We establish a cloud model to assess the overall risk level of regional energy security.