Change of geographic distributions of the genus Morchella species responding to climate oscillations in East Asia.

Morchella is a rare macrofungi taxon with high medicinal and edible values. Influenced by recent climate oscillations and human activities, habitat fragmentation of this genus has been critical, leading to a rapid decline of the resource of Morchella. It is thus urgent to preserve Morchella species. Based on maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), and 102 geographic distribution records of Morchella species with 10 environmental factors, we simulated the changes of potential geographic distributions under the climatic conditions of the last glacial maximum (LGM), last interglacial (LIG), in contemporary period and future (2050, 2070). We further analyzed the potential changes of geographic distributions of Morchella species in East Asia under climate change and formulated the effective conservation strategies for Morchella. The results showed that the dominant environmental factors affecting the geographic distributions of Morchella species were mean temperature of coldest quarter, annual precipitation, elevation and temperature annual range, with the mean temperature of coldest quarter having the greatest contribution. Results of the species distribution models showed that the highly suitable regions for Morchella species were mainly distributed in parts of western China under contemporary period. From the LIG to LGM and then the current to the future period, the total suitable regions of Morchella species showed a trend of firstly decrease and then increase, while the highly suitable regions showed similar change with the total suitable regions. At present, there is an urgent need to conduct in situ conservation for the resources of Morchella species in highly suitable regions in western China, and to carry out ex situ conservation in the marginal ranges of highly suitable regions and moderately suitable regions of Shaanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and other regions in China.羊肚菌属是一类稀有的具有极高药用和食用价值的大型真菌。受到近期气候变化和人类活动影响,羊肚菌属物种栖息地严重片段化和破碎化,导致该属物种资源急剧减少,急需进行科学保护。本研究基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt),利用102个羊肚菌属地理分布信息,结合10个环境因子,模拟了末次盛冰期、末次间冰期、当代和未来(2050、2070年)不同历史气候条件下该属物种的潜在地理分布区变化,分析气候变化情景下东亚地区羊肚菌属物种的地理分布格局变化,并制定有效的保护策略。结果表明: 影响羊肚菌属物种地理分布的主导因子为最冷季平均温度、年降雨量、海拔和年温度变化范围,其中,最冷季平均温度贡献率最大。物种分布模拟表明,羊肚菌属物种当代高适生区主要集中于中国西部部分地区。从末次间冰期到末次盛冰期到当代再到未来,羊肚菌属物种的总适生区面积呈先减少后增加的趋势;高适生区面积变化与总适生区面积变化相同。目前,需对中国西部羊肚菌属物种高适生地区资源进行针对性的原地保护,并对高适生区边缘地区及中国陕西、河北、山东等中适生区进行科学的迁地保护。.