The mid-term results of the Carotid Asymptomatic Stenosis (CARAS) observational study

Introduction Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACAS) remains a subject of debate. Current recommendations are based on randomized trials conducted over 20 years ago and improvements in medical therapies may have reduced the risk of cerebral ischemic events (CIE). This study presents a mid-term analysis of results from an ongoing prospective observational study of ACAS patients to assess their CIE risk in a real-world setting. Methods This is a prospective observational cohort study of patients with ACAS >60 % (NASCET criteria) identified in a single duplex ultrasonography (DUS) vascular laboratory (trial registered: NCT04825080). Patients were not considered for CEA due to their short life expectancy (<3 year) or absence of signs of plaque vulnerability (ulceration, ipoechogenic core). Patient enrollment started in January 2019 and ended in March 2020 with a targeted sample size of 300 patients.A 5-year follow-up was scheduled. Clinical characteristics, risk factors, and medical therapies were documented, and, when necessary, the best medical therapy (BMT), involving antiplatelet agents, blood pressure control, and statins, was recommended during clinical visits. The primary endpoint was to asses CIEs (including strokes, transient ischemic attacks, amaurosis-fugax) ipsilateral to ACAS along with plaque progression rate and patients survival. Follow-up involved annual clinical visit and carotid DUS examination, complemented by telephone interviews at six-month intervals. Results The study included 307 patients, with an average age of 80 ± 7 years, of whom 55 % were male. Contralateral stenosis exceeding 60 % was present in 61 (20 %) patients. Seventy-seven percent of patients were on BMT. At a mean follow-up of 41±9 months, 7 ispilateral strokes and 9 TIAs occurred, resulting in 14 CIEs (2 patients experienced both TIA and stroke). According to Kaplan–Meier analysis, the 4-year CIE rate was 6±2 %, with an annual CIE rate of 1.5 %. Fifty-eight (19 %) patients had a stenosis progression which was associated with a higher 4-year estimated CIE rate compared to patients with stable plaque (10.3 % vs 3.2 %, P=.01). Similarly, a contralateral carotid stenosis >60 % was associated with a higher 4-year estimated CIE rate: 11.7 % vs 2.9 %, P=.002. These factors were independently associated with high risk for CIE at the multivariate COX analysis: Hazard Ratio (HR): 3.2; 95 % Confidence Interval: 1.1-9.2 and HR: 3.6; 95 % CI: 1.2-10.5. Conclusion The mid-term results of this prospective study suggest that the incidence of CIE in ACAS patients should not be underestimated, with plaque progression and contralateral stenosis serving as primary predictors of CIEs.