Multimodal deep learning radiomics model for predicting postoperative progression in solid stage I non-small cell lung cancer

Abstract Purpose To explore the application value of a multimodal deep learning radiomics (MDLR) model in predicting the risk status of postoperative progression in solid stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials and Methods A total of 459 patients with histologically confirmed solid stage I NSCLC who underwent surgical resection in our institution from January 2014 to September 2019 were reviewed retrospectively. At another medical center, 104 patients were reviewed as an external validation cohort according to the same criteria. A univariate analysis was conducted on the clinicopathological characteristics and subjective CT findings of the progression and non-progression groups. The clinicopathological characteristics and subjective CT findings that exhibited significant differences were used as input variables for the extreme learning machine (ELM) classifier to construct the clinical model. We used the transfer learning strategy to train the ResNet18 model, used the model to extract deep learning features from all CT images, and then used the ELM classifier to classify the deep learning features to obtain the deep learning signature (DLS). A MDLR model incorporating clinicopathological characteristics, subjective CT findings and DLS was constructed. The diagnostic efficiencies of the clinical model, DLS model and MDLR model were evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC). Results Univariate analysis indicated that size ( p = 0.004), neuron-specific enolase (NSE) ( p = 0.03), carbohydrate antigen 19 − 9 (CA199) ( p = 0.003), and pathological stage ( p = 0.027) were significantly associated with the progression of solid stage I NSCLC after surgery. Therefore, these clinical characteristics were incorporated into the clinical model to predict the risk of progression in postoperative solid-stage NSCLC patients. A total of 294 deep learning features with nonzero coefficients were selected. The DLS in the progressive group was (0.721 ± 0.371), which was higher than that in the nonprogressive group (0.113 ± 0.350) ( p < 0.001). The combination of size、NSE、CA199、pathological stage and DLS demonstrated the superior performance in differentiating postoperative progression status. The AUC of the MDLR model was 0.885 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.842–0.927), higher than that of the clinical model (0.675 (95% CI: 0.599–0.752)) and DLS model (0.882 (95% CI: 0.835–0.929)). The DeLong test and decision in curve analysis revealed that the MDLR model was the most predictive and clinically useful model. Conclusion MDLR model is effective in predicting the risk of postoperative progression of solid stage I NSCLC, and it is helpful for the treatment and follow-up of solid stage I NSCLC patients.