A weighted distance-based dynamic ensemble regression framework for gastric cancer survival time prediction

Accurate prediction of gastric cancer patient survival time is essential for clinical decision-making. However, unified static models lack specificity and flexibility in predictions owing to the varying survival outcomes among gastric cancer patients. We address these problems by using an ensemble learning approach and adaptively assigning greater weights to similar patients to make more targeted predictions when predicting an individual’s survival time. We treat these problems as regression problems and introduce a weighted dynamic ensemble regression framework. To better identify similar patients, we devise a method to measure patient similarity, considering the diverse impacts of features. Subsequently, we use this measure to design both a weighted K-means clustering method and a fuzzy K-means sampling technique to group patients and train corresponding base regressors. To achieve more targeted predictions, we calculate the weight of each base regressor based on the similarity between the patient to be predicted and the patient clusters, culminating in the integration of the results. The model is validated on a dataset of 7,791 patients, outperforming other models in terms of three evaluation metrics, namely, the root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The weighted dynamic ensemble regression strategy can improve the baseline model by 1.75%, 2.12%, and 13.45% in terms of the three respective metrics while also mitigating the imbalanced survival time distribution issue. This enhanced performance has been statistically validated, even when tested on six public datasets with different sizes. By considering feature variations, patients with distinct survival profiles can be effectively differentiated, and the model predictive performance can be enhanced. The results generated by our proposed model can be invaluable in guiding decisions related to treatment plans and resource allocation. Furthermore, the model has the potential for broader applications in prognosis for other types of cancers or similar regression problems in various domains.