Clinical value of a comprehensive clinical- and echocardiography-based risk score on predicting cardiovascular outcomes in ischemic heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction

Abstract Aims The present study aimed to develop a comprehensive clinical- and echocardiography-based risk score for predicting cardiovascular (CV) adverse outcomes in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods This retrospective cohort study included 1341 hospitalized patients with IHF and LVEF < 50% at our hospital from 2009 to 2017. Cox regression models and nomogram were utilized to develop a comprehensive prediction model (C&E risk score) for CV mortality and CV-related events (hospitalization or death). Results Over a median 26-month follow-up, CV mortality and CV events rates were 17.4% and 40.9%, respectively. The C&E risk score, incorporating both clinical and echocardiographic factors, demonstrated superior predictive performance for CV outcomes compared to models using only clinical or echocardiographic factors. Internal validation confirmed the stable predictive ability of the C&E risk score, with an AUC of 0.740 (95% CI 0.709–0.775, P < 0.001) for CV mortality and an AUC of 0.678 (95% CI 0.642–0.696, P < 0.001) for CV events. Patients were categorized into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk based on the C&E risk score, with progressively increasing CV mortality (5.3% vs. 14.6% vs. 31.9%, P < 0.001) and CV events (28.8% vs. 38.2% vs. 55.0%, P < 0.001). External validation also confirmed the risk score’s prognostic efficacy within additional IHF patient datasets. Conclusion This study establishes and validates the novel C&E risk score as a reliable tool for predicting CV outcomes in IHF patients with reduced LVEF. The risk score holds potential for enhancing risk stratification and guiding clinical decision-making for high-risk patients. Graphical abstract