Global scale identification of catchments phosphorus source shifts with urbanization: A phosphate oxygen isotope and Bayesian mixing model approach

Different scenarios of urban expansion can influence the dynamic characteristics of catchments in terms of phosphorus (P). It is important to identify the changes in P sources that occur during the process of urbanization to develop targeted policies for managing P in catchments. However, there is a knowledge gap in quantifying the variations of potential P sources associated with urbanization. By combining phosphate oxygen isotopes from global catchments with a Bayesian model and the urbanization process, we demonstrate that the characteristics of potential P sources (such as fertilizers, urban wastewater, faeces, and bedrock) change as urban areas expand. Our results indicate that using phosphate oxygen isotopes in conjunction with a Bayesian model provides direct evidence of the proportions of potential P sources. We classify catchment P loadings into three stages based on shifts in potential P sources during urban expansion. During the initial stage of urbanization (urban areas < 1.5 %), urban domestic and industrial wastewater are the main contributors to P loadings in catchments. In the mid-term acceleration stage (1.5 % ≤ urban areas < 3.5 %), efforts to improve wastewater treatment significantly reduce wastewater P input, but the increase in fertilizer P input offsets this reduction in sewage-derived P. In the high-level urbanization stage (urban areas ≥ 3.5 %), the proportions of the four potential P sources tend to stabilize. Remote areas bear the burden of excessive P loadings to meet the growing food demand and improved diets resulting from the increasing urban population. Our findings support the development of strategies for water quality management that better consider the driving forces of urbanization on catchment P loadings.