Integrative Scoring System for Survival Prediction in Patients With Locally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Retrospective Multicenter Study

Tumor stage is crucial for prognostic evaluation and therapeutic decisions in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) but is imprecise. We aimed to propose a new prognostic system by integrating quantitative imaging features and clinical factors.This retrospective study included 1,319 patients with stage III-IVa NPC between April 1, 2010, and July 31, 2019, who underwent pretherapy magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and received concurrent chemoradiotherapy with or without induction chemotherapy. The hand-crafted and deep-learned features were extracted from MRI for each patient. After feature selection, the clinical score, radiomic score, deep score, and integrative scores were constructed via Cox regression analysis. The scores were validated in two external cohorts. The predictive accuracy and discrimination were measured by the area under the curve (AUC) and risk group stratification. The end points were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS).Both radiomics and deep learning were complementary to clinical variables (age, T stage, and N stage; all P < .05). The clinical-deep score was superior or equivalent to clinical-radiomic score, whereas it was noninferior to clinical-radiomic-deep score (all P > .05). These findings were also verified in the evaluation of OS and DMFS. The clinical-deep score yielded an AUC of 0.713 (95% CI, 0.697 to 0.729) and 0.712 (95% CI, 0.693 to 0.731) in the two external validation cohorts for predicting PFS with good calibration. This scoring system could stratify patients into high- and low-risk groups with distinct survivals (all P < .05).We established and validated a prognostic system integrating clinical data and deep learning to provide an individual prediction of survival for patients with locally advanced NPC, which might inform clinicians in treatment decision making.