Global insect herbivory and its response to climate change

Herbivorous insects consume a large proportion of the energy flow in terrestrial ecosystems and play a major role in the dynamics of plant populations and communities. However, high-resolution, quantitative predictions of the global patterns of insect herbivory and their potential underlying drivers remain elusive. Here, we compiled and analyzed a dataset consisting of 9,682 records of the severity of insect herbivory from across natural communities worldwide to quantify its global patterns and environmental determinants. Global mapping revealed strong spatial variation in insect herbivory at the global scale, showing that insect herbivory did not significantly vary with latitude for herbaceous plants but increased with latitude for woody plants. We found that the cation-exchange capacity in soil was a main predictor of levels of herbivory on herbaceous plants, while climate largely determined herbivory on woody plants. We next used well-established scenarios for future climate change to forecast how spatial patterns of insect herbivory may be expected to change with climate change across the world. We project that herbivore pressure will intensify on herbaceous plants worldwide but would likely only increase in certain biomes (e.g., northern coniferous forests) for woody plants. Our assessment provides quantitative evidence of how environmental conditions shape the spatial pattern of insect herbivory, which enables a more accurate prediction of the vulnerabilities of plant communities and ecosystem functions in the Anthropocene.