Scale effects on the supply–demand mismatches of ecosystem services in Hubei Province, China

Understanding the patterns, relationships, and driving forces between ecosystem services (ESs) supply–demand at multiple spatial scales can facilitate sustainable hierarchical management. However, the scale effects of ESs supply–demand mismatches were typically ignored, resulting in inadequate targeted ecosystem promotion policies. This study identified the supply–demand mismatches of the key ESs (grain production, water yield, carbon sequestration, and soil conservation) using the ecological supply–demand ratio and bivariate Moran's I at three grid and county scales from 2000 to 2020 in Hubei Province, China. Then the spatial regression models were applied to explore the driving forces of these mismatches. The major results revealed that (1) Hubei Province and counties located away from urban areas were self-sufficient in the ESs supply–demand, but the numbers of these counties declined over the twenty years. The characteristics of ESs mismatches in some patches may be obscured at coarser scales. (2) The directions of socioecological drivers were robust, but their intensities changed significantly at the four scales. The normalized difference vegetation index was the primary positive driver at the fine scale, while population, economy, and proportion of construction land became dominant drivers at coarser scales. Factors influencing mismatches were more diverse at the fine scale compared to the coarse scale. (3) Efficient strategies were scale-dependent and place-based. Different management units should clarify their responsibilities and strengthen linkages between upper and lower levels to achieve sustainable ESs development. At the provincial level, strengthening interregional cooperation and allocating surplus grain and water resources from the southwest to urban regions contributes to balancing regional ESs. At the county level, adopting region-specific strategies based on delineating ESs management zones is crucial. At finer management levels, incorporating micro-scale mismatch locations and natural background information can provide valuable guidance for localized ecological protection and restoration projects. The findings underscore the strengths of conducting assessments of ESs supply–demand at multiple scales, enabling different government levels to enhance effective ecosystem management and prevent misinformation.