Episodic Detectable Viremia Does Not Affect Prognosis in Untreated Compensated Cirrhosis With Serum Hepatitis B Virus DNA <2,000 IU/mL

INTRODUCTION: The necessity of antiviral therapy (AVT) for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected compensated cirrhosis with low-level viremia (LLV) is controversial. Herein, we evaluated its natural history. METHODS: From 3 tertiary hospitals, we enrolled untreated patients with compensated cirrhosis with persistent serum HBV-DNA levels <2,000 IU/mL; LLV was defined as having at least 1 detectable serum HBV-DNA (20–2,000 IU/mL) episode, whereas maintained virological response (MVR) was defined as having persistently undetectable serum HBV-DNA (<20 IU/mL). When serum HBV-DNA was ≥2,000 IU/mL during follow-up, AVT was administered according to guidelines. Study end points were development of cirrhotic complication event (CCE) or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). RESULTS: Among 567 patients analyzed, cumulative HCC risk at 3, 5, and 7 years was comparable between LLV (n = 391) vs MVR (n = 176) groups (5.7%, 10.7%, and 17.3% vs 7.2%, 15.5%, and 19.4%, respectively [ P = 0.390]). CCE risk was also comparable between 2 groups (7.5%, 12.8%, and 13.7% vs 7.8%, 12.3%, and 14.6%, respectively [ P = 0.880]). By multivariate analysis, LLV (vs MVR) was not associated with HCC or CCE risks, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.422 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.694–2.913; P = 0.336) and 1.816 (95% CI: 0.843–3.911; P = 0.128), respectively. Inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis yielded comparable outcomes between 2 groups, regarding HCC and CCE risks with hazard ratios of 0.903 (95% CI: 0.528–1.546; P = 0.711) and 1.192 (95% CI: 0.675–2.105; P = 0.545), respectively. DISCUSSION: Episodic LLV among untreated patients with compensated cirrhosis does not increase the risk of disease progression compared with MVR status. Thus, the benefits of AVT for episodic LLV should be re-evaluated.