Exposure to heavy metals from point pollution sources and risk of incident type 2 diabetes among women: a prospective cohort analysis

Heavy metal exposures may contribute to diabetes risk but prospective studies are uncommon. We analyzed the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (three cohorts aged 18–23, 45–50, or 70–75 at baseline in 1996, N = 34,191) merged with emissions data for 10 heavy metals (As, Be, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) from the National Pollutant Inventory. Over 20-year follow-up, 2,584 women (7.6%) reported incident diabetes. Cox proportional hazards regression models showed that women aged 45–50 at baseline had higher diabetes risk in association with exposure to total air emissions, total water emissions, all individual metals air emissions, and six individual water emissions. After correction for false discovery rate, nine of 11 air emissions and five water emissions remained significant. Associations were not observed for land-based emissions, or for younger or older cohorts. Emissions were dominated by mining, electricity generation and other metals-related industrial processes.