Diffusion-weighted Breast MRI in Prediction of Upstaging in Women with Biopsy-proven Ductal Carcinoma in Situ

Background Accurate preoperative prediction of upstaging in women with biopsy-proven ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is important for surgical planning, but published models using predictive MRI features remain lacking. Purpose To develop and validate a predictive model based on preoperative breast MRI to predict upstaging in women with biopsy-proven DCIS and to select high-risk women who may benefit from sentinel lymph node biopsy at initial surgery. Materials and methods Consecutive women with biopsy-proven DCIS who underwent preoperative 3.0-T breast MRI including dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and who underwent surgery between June 2019 and March 2020 were retrospectively identified (development set) from an academic medical center. The apparent diffusion coefficients of lesions from DWI, lesion size and morphologic features on DCE MRI scans, mammographic findings, age, symptoms, biopsy method, and DCIS grade at biopsy were collected. The presence of invasive cancer and axillary metastases was determined with surgical pathology. A predictive model for upstaging was developed by using multivariable logistic regression and validated in a subsequent prospective internal validation set recruited between July 2020 and April 2021. Results Fifty-seven (41%) of 140 women (mean age, 53 years ± 11 [SD]) in the development set and 43 (41%) of 105 women (mean age, 53 years ± 10) in the validation set were upstaged after surgery. The predictive model combining DWI and clinical-pathologic factors showed the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve at 0.87 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.92) in the development set and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.84) in the validation set. The predicted probability of invasive cancer showed good interobserver agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.79); the positive predictive value was 85% (28 of 33), and the negative predictive value was 92% (22 of 24). Conclusion A predictive model based on diffusion-weighted breast MRI identified women at high risk of upstaging. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article See also the editorial by Baltzer in this issue. An earlier incorrect version appeared online. This article was corrected on July 7, 2022.