Indonesia's Demographic Dividend or Window of Opportunity?

As the world’s fourth largest populous nation, Indonesia is predicted to reach the height of its so-called demographic dividend between 2020 and 2030 when the share of population in working ages will be at its highest level and the potential for increased output per capita and hence more productive investment will theoretically be at its peak. But the ability to maximize this potential is far from certain and depends on a variety of social and economic underpinnings, including key issues associated with human resource capacity and gender equality that will determine how well Indonesia is placed to meet the challenges involved. This contribution first reviews the history of demographic and social transformations, including the dramatic shift from anti- to pro-natalist policies that have occurred in Indonesia since independence. Set against a deterministic trend of an age-sex specific population projection, we seek to provide an assessment of these past trends in demographic and social dynamics in relationship to the current state of preparedness, with a focus on social and gender-related issues. Finally, we will outline several of the key challenges, particularly in the context of the current socio-economic and political climate that will ultimately determine whether Indonesia will move into a future real demographic dividend or only observe the world through a window of opportunity. Keywords: Demographic dividend, Population, Labour, Pro-natalist policies