How does the photovoltaic industry contribute to China's carbon neutrality goal? Analysis of a system dynamics simulation

As the world's largest carbon emitter, China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, and photovoltaics (PV) is considered a primary approach for achieving this. However, few studies have considered the dynamic impact of the life cycle of the PV industry on carbon emissions under the goal of carbon neutrality. Thus, we assumed different carbon neutral scenarios to assess the impact of China's PV industry on carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. This is done using a system dynamics model and a Weibull function model. The result shows that the PV industry emitted more CO2 than it reduced before 2018, meaning that the total carbon emission reductions from China's PV industry were negative. To reach carbon neutrality, under the benchmark scenario (where electricity generated by PV accounts for 40% of total electricity), beginning in 2030, there are more than 10 GW of waste PV modules per year and recycling scrap could reduce 55 million tons (Mt) CO2 at a 90% recycling rate by 2060. The PV industry could reduce emissions by 1300 Mt CO2 by 2030, with a cumulative reduction of 7260 Mt. By 2060, PV operating modules could reach 6000 GW, with annual emission reductions of 5430 Mt. This would represent the contribution of PV power generation to the zero carbon emissions of China's electricity is 36.8% and the contribution to the carbon neutrality of society is 14.7%.